Worldwide House Price Trend (2006–2010)

This is the worldwide house prices trend in the past 5 years which includes USA, Japan, Britain, China, Australia, Singapore and Hong Kong. Too bad, there is no data for Malaysia but you can kind of guess that  Malaysia should be somewhere  below China and follow the similar uptrend like China. Let’s check it out the graph below:

Source: www.econmist.com

The house price fell in USA was due to the subprime mortgage crisis in 2006. The house price drops by ~35% after this crisis and has never been recovered until today. By the way, this trend is also similar to Ireland which is not shown in this graph (I don’t want to make the graph too crowded) . As for Japan, the house price has never been recovered after the Japanese asset price bubble from 1986 to 1991. Surprisingly if you look at the house price trend in Britain, it was that badly affected by the subprime mortgage crisis if compare to USA. 

The house price for the rest of countries especially for Asia (except for Japan – i.e. China, Hong Kong, Singapore) and Australia, is moving uptrend. The slight downtrend in 2008 – 2009 was probably due to the stock market crash during that time.  After the stock market crash, investors start moving their target to real estate or property. That is probably the reason why you see the house price has been increasing dramatically after 2009 until today.
 

When is the next bubble burst?

You can kind of expected the house price in the western countries will probably stay flat in the coming years. But what really interesting here is the property market in Asia. Will it be keep going up or is it already at peak? Bloomberg reported Hong Kong is the world’s most expensive place to buy home. 65 million apartments in China are said to be empty creating “Ghost Cities”. Are these obvious enough to tell the property bubble is going to burst soon?


Well, I do not know but if you ask me about Malaysia, I think generally most of the investors in Malaysia have the strong holding power and this makes me think the property bubble bust is unlikely to happen in Malaysia. Could I be wrong? Another very interesting discussion is the property price in Penang and KL seems to have huge gap as compared to the other states or cities within Malaysia. Can the bubble burst only happen within certain states or cities (e.g. Penang and KL)?

So, what do you think? Do you think property bubble burst is forming in your country? What is the next trend?